Tuesday, 24 January 2023

On the USD

The world went from "The sun never sets on the British Empire" to "The sun never sets on the American dollar".


It has been evident for some time now that:
1. The strength of the dollar is not based on the strength of the American economy, but on its stranglehold on international trade.
2. As countries start to declare independence from the currency, it will lead to macroeconomic shifts and some numbers changing.

The US is, and has been for some time now, a net importer of goods and services. This works very well when you have a strong currency. But if your currency drops, and you suddenly realise that you do not have production capabilities in-house, then the house of cards tumbles, and how! 

As a society also, the US is not a welfare state. It is a highly individualistic society. This means that any state of scarcity will not lead to Ubuntu or collaboration as the first response. The first response is likely to be competition for the same scarce resources. (We saw a sample in early 2020). 

After a few months, everyone will realise that it makes sense to work together. Then, of course, given that, like every country, it has some great brains - America will bounce back stronger. 

But until then, as the march of the colonies continues, we do expect to see some social and political turmoil in the US. 

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