Showing posts with label The future of IT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The future of IT. Show all posts

Sunday, 25 December 2022

Forecast post

This is a forecast post. It has 2 pieces of forecast, both about Google. 


Prediction One: Chickens will come home to roost 

Within 2023, the Cyber Crime Cell of India will hold Google accountable for misinformation leading to fraud that originates on its website.

Why? 

Google owns 92% of the global search engine market. 

At this time, multiple frauds are based on incorrect service desk numbers published on Google. Unwitting customers dial these fraud numbers to get customer service on their bank/card/product etc. and end up getting conned. 

Google is not held accountable for this in any way. 

 This is even more culpable because the fraud numbers are highlighted separately on the right in the Google Search result. 

The other thing for which Google will be held accountable is listing fraudulent sites on top of the search results only because these companies have paid for search optimisation ads. 

I am sure we all have been conned at least once by the top search result on Google. 

Now, of course, I make it a point to check the reviews of the site before trusting them, but most consumers are not likely to do that. Here is one example: 


As you can see, on the right, the highlighted searches are a website called Perfume Papa. 

The prices are at least 50% lower than those of all other sites. 

BUT, at this point, before we order, we do a simple text based scam check: 




First of all, the reviews come a little after half page is over. Then, as you scroll, you see more and more negative customer reviews. 

Now, consider what is happening here: 

Google is supposed to show the most relevant search results on top. This means that a user can assume, reasonably, that a search result on top is a relevant search result. They do not, at this point, have any reason to doubt the geniuneness of the site because Google has displayed it as a legit site to buy perfumes. 

When a customer gets scammed, they have no way of bringing Google to book. They can only blame themselves for trusting Google. But Google PROMISES relevant results and enjoys 92.2% market share only because of reliability. 

If you told everyone that Google search results are not reliable, do you think Google would still be at that 90%? 

Also, Google directly controls what it shows on its search engine. Therefore, it cannot claim the intermediary benefit. Any fraud that happens on account of organic search results is the responsibility of Google. It cannot hide behind search engine optimisation. 

Prediction Two: Reliability is the new gold 

Within 2024, reliability will become the No. 1 headache of the world. 

Even Google realises that ChatGPT3 is the future of web search. 


However, Chat GP is not particularly reliable on the facts side. Really.  

I have no idea where it gets its fake ideas from, but am guessing from the same place as Google. 

If Google thinks that it is at risk from the format of Chat GPT, that is not it. It is at risk from the reliability of GPT. 
I just tried some controversial statements on Chat GPT and the results this week are different from results last week. Today is a lot more diplomatic, ergo, completely useless. BUT, it had no factual errors this time. 

The new success catalyst for web based search will be the reliability of search results. 
Not the format. The content. 

Example: 
Here is the text query I put on Chat GPT just now (time stamp is important because Chat GP is evolving rather rapidly) 

Search Query: What is the most controversial event of the 21st century so far


Chat GPT 3 response:

It is difficult to identify a single, most controversial event of the 21st century so far, as different events may be perceived as more or less controversial depending on one's perspective and context. Some events that have been widely considered to be controversial include:

  • The 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, which occurred on September 11, 2001, and were perpetrated by a group of Islamic terrorists. The attacks resulted in the deaths of nearly 3,000 people and had significant global political and economic consequences.

  • The invasion of Iraq by the United States and its allies in 2003, which was justified by the US government as a response to the 9/11 attacks and the threat of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. The invasion, which was not authorized by the United Nations, led to a long and costly war and the destabilization of the region.

  • The Arab Spring, a series of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that occurred in several Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The protests, which were fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with autocratic governments and economic inequality, led to the overthrow of several leaders and significant political change in the region.

  • The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in late 2019 and has had a profound impact on global health and economic systems, as well as on social and political dynamics. The pandemic has raised numerous controversial issues, including debates about the effectiveness of various government responses and the distribution of vaccines.



Google search results start with Wikipedia! 

Yes, usability is a HUGE issue with Google search results. But notice something else? There is no trustworthiness to what Google is putting out. Wiki is the Kingdom of misinformation and no one has any accountability, again. 
Since investing in Wiki, i notice that Google has been prioritising Wiki in the search results. But that comes at a huge cost to the reliability of Google itself. 
And, if i have to double check everything the search engine is telling me, why do I need the search engine at all. 

Google's results are even less reliable and relevant than distant competitors like DuckDuckGo 


And Yahoo! 

The new gold is not just data. It is fact-checked, accurate data.